Play-off permutations add intriguing twist to Maidenhead's survival bid

Photo credit: Paul Morgan

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With just five league games left to play, Maidenhead head coach David Mobbs-Smith has been going through all the permutations of what might be needed for his side to stay in the Regional 1 South Central Division.

It’s not looking great for Maids after last week’s 34=25 home defeat to London Scottish Lions, a result which left his side two points adrift of the safety net of a relegation play-off.

With a tough run in to come against more sides from the top half of the table than their rivals, it feels like their time at this level may be coming to an end.

But there’s still plenty of fight in the camp and, if they can produce performances as good as the one against Scottish in their final matches, they may just have enough to haul themselves out of the bottom two.

They also have no control over what their rivals do in the run in. If Camberley and Hammersmith & Fulham fail to win another match - perfectly plausible given their respective disappointing seasons - Maids might only have to win one more game to avoid going down automatically.

This Saturday, they go to eighth placed Worthing in what the head coach has already described as a must win fixture.

“Worthing are now safe from the play-offs or almost safe from the play-offs,” he said. “I think they have a substantial gap. Wimbledon would have to make up three wins on them in their final five games and Worthing would have to get nothing.

“This game will be important to them because if they win it they won’t have to worry about play-offs at all.

“There is a bit of pressure on them but obviously not as much as there is on us, Camberley, Wimbledon and Hammersmith.

“Hammersmith could also wriggle their way out of trouble. Last season they managed to do it and if they were to win three of their last games, they’d likely put us and Camberley in the bottom two.

“They’re not dead and buried at only three points behind us.

“We basically have to win at least one game with Camberley winning nothing, otherwise we’re done. If Camberley win once, we have to win twice, that’s the position we’re in. Suddenly there’s significance in other people’s results.”

The promotion and relegation play-offs have also come into play this season for the first time and will have a factor on how results play out in the final weeks of the season. But predicting what impact they’ll have is a bit of a minefield. Maids simply must win as many games as they can - and pick up bonus points when they can’t - and hope other results go their way.

“Those teams that can no longer make the promotion play-offs, does that factor into how they play and who they select,” questioned Mobbs-Smith.

“For a team that’s cemented their play-off place and have that match the following week, will they play their best team in their final league matches? That’s going to be a factor for the first time ever and it’s going to be fascinating to see how this plays out.

“Likewise for Wimbledon who are going to Jersey for their final game of the season. Do they want their key players getting injured at Jersey in a match that’s probably a foregone conclusion or will they save them for the play-off match? When perhaps Camberley and ourselves will be throwing the kitchen sink at our final matches to try and get into that play-off match.

“It’s going to be fascinating to see how that all unfolds. But we have to get there first and foremost.”

The team that loses the Regional 1 South Central division relegation play-off wont necessarily be demoted. They’ll then take on a team aiming for promotion from the level below in a final play-off clash to determine which league they’ll be in next season, so there’s a real safety net for the teams finishing ninth and 10th.